When There Are Too Many Choices – Monte Carlo Is The Right Choice, 20PEERS Conference

Monte Carlo simulation is a technique to help evaluate the impact of risk and uncertainty in operating scenarios and project alternatives.  The basic principle for the simulation is to use random samples of parameters or inputs to evaluate the behavior of a complex system or process  The atomic bomb development in the 1940s was the impetus behind the Monte Carlo method development.  The scientists had to model what would happen in a chain reaction of enriched uranium with the actual results not deviating significantly from their projections.  But this neutron diffusion model was too complex to describe and solve with algebraic equations.  So, the scientists used a numerical method – plugging in randomly chosen numbers into the equations and calculating the results.  Using the statistics, they analyzed the results using it as a guide in the design of an atomic bomb.  We know what happened.  The scientists named the Monte Carlo method after the city Monaco, famed for its casinos and games of chance.   

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Author: Bill Nichols
When There Are Too Many Choices • Monte Carlo Is The Right C
When There Are Too Many Choices • Monte Carlo Is The Right Choice, 20PEERS Conference

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