Recycling and Global Timber Harvest, 1995 Global Fiber Supply Symposium Proceedings

Peter J. Ince and Henry Spelter

USDA Forest Service

The volume of paper recycled worldwide has increased in recent decades to unprecedented levels. Pulp and paper production has also increased globally to unprecedented levels, and will continue to increase in the foreseeable future along with increased paper and paperboard product consumption. Among world regions, increased recycling has the largest potential effects on future pulpwood harvest trends and fiber supply in North America and Europe, due to large volumes of pulp and paper production, heavy traditional reliance on pulpwood fiber, and latent potential for increased recycling. Likely trends in recycling have smaller potential effects on timber harvests in Asia, South America, Africa, and Oceania. Worldwide demand for fiber resources continues to grow, and overall wood fiber consumption is not likely to diminish substantially in any region. Timber harvest effects of recycling in North America were developed by comparing projections of pulpwood harvest with and without expected increases in paper recycling. Results show that increased recycling has large effects on projected softwood pulpwood harvest in North America, and modest effects on projected hardwood pulpwood harvest. Results are sensitive to assumptions about future demand levels for paper and paperboard products, and higher demand could result in somewhat higher projected levels of pulpwood harvest. However, analysis of future pulpwood harvest must also take into account trends in other technologies that may place greater future demands on pulpwood resources. Oriented Strand-Board (OSB) structural panel products serve as the prime example of an ongoing technological change in North America that will place greater future demands on pulpwood resources. OSB technology is growing rapidly in production capacity and is expected to gain an increasing market share in structural wood products. The ongoing shift in structural panel capacity from softwood plywood to OSB portends significant shifts in resource use from veneer logs to pulpwood. Increased paper recycling over the next decade will offset a substantial volume of pulpwood harvest in North America, but pulpwood harvest for OSB will increase over the same time period. Projected North American growth in pulpwood harvest for OSB products over the next decade will rival projected growth in pulpwood harvest for the pulp and paper sector. Generalizing these findings to the global context, it would appear that the future fiber supply outlook hinges critically on our understanding of future trends in demand as well as future technological changes, such as increased paper recycling and trends in OSB capacity.