Sensitivity Analysis For Minnesota-Dictated Risk Assessment Parameters, 1992 Environmental Conference Proceedings

A chronic human health risk assessment (RA) was completed to evaluate the potential impacts as part of a pulp mill expansion project. This risk assessment was prepared and submitted to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA). Following submission of the analysis, the MPCA requested that alternative assumptions be made as part of the risk assessment. This led to the incorporation of a sensitivity analysis into the risk assessment. The original "base case" RA utilized site-specific exposure parameters, standard default risk assessment parameters, as well as more current parameters that were selected following a thorough review of the scientific literature to generate a "reasonable maximum" estimate of risk. The MPCA requested additional analyses including analysis of some standard parameters that were not used in the "base case" because there is some debate in the scientific community over their use. This paper presents the methods used to perform the MPCA-required sensitivity analysis. Three cases were developed in the sensitivity analysis. These included best case, worst case, and MPCA-defined case. Risk estimates were calculated using the differing input assumptions for several parameters representing these four cases. All estimates of risk ("base case", MPCA-defined, and best and worst case) are compared. Finally, a Monte Carlo analysis is performed so that bounds can be placed on the distribution of risk.