Modeling Developments Affecting the Pulp and Paper Industry: Change is in the Air, 1996 Environmental Conference Proceedings

The Sixth Conference on Air Quality Modeling, sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in August 1995, introduced a number of developments in air quality modeling that could have significant implications for the permitting of pulp and paper manufacturing facilities. In response to emerging requirements that require the assessment of impacts on Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) Class I areas up to 200 of more kilometers away from a source, the recently released CALPUFF model is proposed as the preferred modeling technique for long range transport modeling. Another model that has been introduced for short-range applications is the newest version of the Industrial Source Complex model, ISCST3. This model incorporates improvements in dispersion algorithms for area sources and wet and dry particulate deposition, as well as a screening technique for handling complex terrain effects, consistent with the COMPLEX-I model. EPA is also developing a state-of-the-art model, AERMOD, under a collaborative effort with the American Meteorological Society. This model, which is designed to replace ISC3 in the future, improves upon the standard gaussian approach and also handles complex terrain effects in a more refined manner than ISC3. Other model development topics that will affect future permitting of pulp and paper facilities include an improved building downwash algorithm under development by the Electric Power Research Institute which promises to significantly improve the credibility of model predictions in the vicinity of a facility. Additional areas discussed at the conference include the simulation of accidental releases of acutely hazardous materials, and requirements for on-site meteorological data in modeling applications. This paper summarizes these developments in modeling and highlights the areas that could most affect the pulp and paper industry.