Carbon Sequestered, Carbon Displaced and the Kyoto Context, 1999 Environmental Conference Proceedings

Gregg Marland and Bernhard Schlamadinger

Environmental Sciences Division

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

The integrated system that embraces forest management, forest products, and land-use change impacts the global carbon cycle - and hence the net emission of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide - in four fundamental ways. Carbon is stored in living and dead biomass, carbon is stored in wood products and landfills, forest products substitute in the market place for products made from other materials, and forest harvests can be used wholly or partially to displace fossil fuels in the energy sector. Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change would result in the creation of international markets for carbon dioxide emissions credits, but the current Kyoto text does not treat all carbon identically. We have developed a carbon accounting model, GORCAM, to examine a variety of scenarios for land management and the production of forest products. In this paper we explore, for two simple scenarios of forest management, the carbon flows that occur and how these might be accounted for under the Kyoto text. The Kyoto Protocol raises questions about what activities can result in emissions credits, which carbon reservoirs will be counted, who will receive the credits, and how much credit will be available? The Kyoto Protocol would sometimes give credits for carbon sequestered, but it would always give credits when fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are displaced.